The Challenge
For decades, this website was devoted to bicycle touring as a great vacation choice with a low environmental impact. A few years ago, I started encouraging local bike touring to minimize the environmental impact of traveling to distant locations to join a tour, especially via international air travel.
Recently, I’ve become particularly concerned about the dangers posed to cyclists from increasing motor vehicle traffic. In turn, this has raised my awareness of Ecological Overshoot* and its relevance for all of us, not just cyclists. Although I still feel that cycling has many personal and environmental benefits, this website’s primary focus will now be on the phenomenon of Overshoot.
Most middle-aged and older people have been steeped in a lifelong culture that firmly believes humans are a special species that’s entitled to exploit all the resources of our planet with little concern about the finite nature of those resources. Resources that include all other species, mineral deposits, fossil fuels, fertile land, and the capacity to absorb pollution of air and water. It’s nearly impossible for this group of people to accept the premise of Overshoot, much less take any meaningful action to reverse this phenomenon.
Therefore, this website will attempt to challenge our younger generations to adopt a critical view of our industrial civilization by investigating the claims of Overshoot and deciding the appropriate course of action.
To provide a workable framework, I ask the question: What do you think life in our modern world will be like in the year 2050? For measurement metrics, we’ll use the bottom two tiers of the
None of us can predict the future, however, all of us can speculate on how the future might turn out given various assumptions. My example assumptions and resulting scenarios are just intended to be thought-starters.
I’m asking the reader to ponder three conflicting assumptions:
First, we’ll muddle along with some effort to address today’s problems, resulting in life in the year 2050 being pretty much the same.
Second, human innovation and technological progress solves most of today’s problems related to fossil fuels, climate change, pollution, food supply, etc., resulting in life in 2050 being better than today.
Finally, most efforts to address today’s energy and resource issues fall short, resulting in a much worse (material) standard of living in 2050.
The next step in this website is to explore factual data that may well determine which of these three scenarios is most likely to reflect reality in 2050.
* Ecological Overshoot is the phenomenon that occurs when the demands made on a natural ecosystem exceed its regenerative capacity.
The Question
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Scenario 1: Pretty Much the Same
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Scenario 2: Much Better
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Scenario 3: Worse
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- Are you a 20-something who lives in a modern civilization with heated/cooled homes, indoor plumbing, cars, expressways, airplanes, supermarkets, TV, internet, and cell phones?
- What do you think your life will be like in the year 2050?
- Will it be pretty much the same as now?
- Or… Will it be much better?
- Or… Will it be much more challenging?
(Note that the desktop version of this website uses more graphics than the phone version.)
Scenario 1: Pretty Much the Same
- Clean air, fresh water, and food supply are about the same as today.
- Home ownership, apartment rental, and clothing supply are about the same as today.
- Essential services like police-fire, hospitals, schools, banks, court system, social security, and employment opportunity are about the same as today.
- Luxuries and conveniences, like cars, air travel, fast food, TV, internet, cell phones, shopping malls, sports arenas, etc., are about the same as today.
Scenario 2: Much Better
- Wind, Solar, nuclear, hydrogen, and other alternative energy sources replace fossil fuels.
- Reversal of air and water pollution.
- Abundant food supply for a growing population.
- Homeless problem is fixed with high-tech building materials.
- Longer life from advanced medical services and drugs.
- Education improved through virtual learning.
- Full employment with shorter work weeks.
- Far less crime.
- More leisure time for sports, social media, music, vacations, etc.
Scenario 3: Worse
- The technology renaissance failed, resulting in far fewer essentials and conveniences.
- Fossil fuels and mineral resources are in serious decline.
- Alternative energy sources are inadequate.
- Industrial agriculture has degraded/poisoned soils, resulting in frequent food shortages.
- Heavy industries and global supply networks suffer from shortages of fuel and materials.
- Global warming has caused sea rise and destructive storms around the world.
- The national government is only for military defense.
- State and local governments struggle to maintain essential services.
- Big cities are deteriorating and being abandoned.
- Large homes are being subdivided to house multiple families.
- Rural communities are the best places to live if you are able-bodied.
- Most shopping for food, clothing, furniture, etc, is done in farmers'/flea markets.
- Office-type jobs are rare, and practical skills are in demand.
- Health and education services are much like they were 100 years ago.
- Local volunteer services have replaced many government functions.
- Modern luxuries/recreation have mostly been replaced by local sports and arts.
- Local transportation is mostly by tiny electric vehicles and bicycles. Large personal cars are banned.
- Human population is in decline for a variety of reasons.
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Let's explore what will affect life in 2050
Be sure to click the EXPLORE buttons
Overshoot
"The international community is focused on climate change as the existential threat to human civilization. This focus is misdirected. Climate change is indeed a horrific problem, but is only one symptom of a greater truly existential threat, ecological overshoot. Overshoot means that humans and their ecological footprints exceed global carrying capacity: modern H. sapiens is depleting even renewable/replenishible resources faster than biophysical systems can regenerate and dumping entropic waste in excess of natural assimilation rates. (CO2 emissions constitute the largest industrial waste by weight.) Overshoot is a meta-problem. It is the cause of climate change and numerous co-symptoms including plunging biodiversity, ocean acidification, tropical deforestation, landscape/soil degradation, falling sperm counts, the contamination of food supplies and the pollution of everything else, i.e., virtually all other so-called environmental problems. Both rising incomes (consumption) and growing populations inflate the human eco-footprint, but population growth is the larger factor at the margin. (Egregious and widening inequality is a separate socio-political problem.) Mainstream approaches to alleviating climate change will not only not fix the climate but actually reinforce the status quo, i.e., they represent ‘business-as-usual-by-alternative-means.’ This is counter-productive, as overshoot is ultimately a terminal condition. Humanity is nearing the peak of a one-off population cycle; if uncontrolled, the current boom phase will end in chaotic bust. The continuity of civilisation requires a cooperative, planned contraction of both the material economy and human populations, beginning with a personal to civilizational transformation of the fundamental values, beliefs, assumptions, attitudes and behaviours underpinning neoliberal/capitalist industrial society."
William Rees PhD, FRSC Professor Emeritus and former Director University of British Columbia’s School of Community and Regional Planning in Vancouver, Canada
There are numerous sites that explain Ecological Overshoot - just Google - here are a few links:
University of Toronto - Overshoot
Wiki on Ecological Overshoot
Overshoot as the primary cause of our predicament
Ecological Footprint
Typical Overshoot Blog
Human Population
There are numerous sites that explain human population - just Google - here are a few links:
Wiki on Human Overpopulation
Population Matters
World Population Meter
The Guardian Article
Resource Consumption
Overconsumption is a situation where resource use has outpaced the sustainable capacity of the ecosystem. It can be measured by the
Ecological Footprint, a resource accounting approach that
compares human demand on ecosystems with the amount of planet matter ecosystems can renew.The result of overconsumption is the deterioration of the environment through Resoure Depletion such as quality of air, water, and soil; the destruction of ecosystems; habitat destruction; the extinction of wildlife; and pollution.
The main driver of overconsumption is capitalism and its need for constant economic growth. It uses incessant advertising to promote a culture of Consumerism .
Energy Supply
For most people, electricity is the most obvious type of energy that affects their daily lives. Electricity supply is primarily dependent upon fossil fuels and alternative sources such as wind and solar play a minor role. There is little evidence this will change - if you find it hard to accept this assertion, do some research on the four pillars of modern civilization: cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia.
An important question is: How long will fossil fuels last? Most predictions suggest about 50 years for oil and gas.
The problem with this common prediction is the failure to account for all the costs of extracting and converting these raw resources into practical fuels. Critics of this type of prediction suggest that the declining fossil fuel supply will begin to significantly impact global economies in the next decade or two.
The
Journal of Petroleum Technology .
(JPT) provides an important insight:
“As a critical component in 90% of all industrially manufactured products and a third of global primary energy consumption, oil is the backbone of industrial civilization.”
“With our new energy landscape has come a new and increasingly prominent metric. Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is a ratio used to measure the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a particular energy source compared to the amount of energy required to extract, process, and distribute that energy source”.
“The global energy landscape is facing a crucial turning point. Various studies show that oil liquid production is expected to peak in 2035 …. but when the energy required for the extraction and production of these liquids is taken into account, the net-energy peak is expected to occur in 2025 …..”
“Given the plummeting energy return on investment of oil, the global energy transition must occur quickly to avoid energy shortages, environmental threats, and economic depression. In the foreseeable future, the energy needed to produce oil liquids could approach unsustainable levels, a phenomenon called “energy cannibalism.”
“On the one hand, we clearly have too much fossil fuels stock to respect ambitious climate targets. On the other hand, should the supply side of oil liquids face major bottlenecks, then a fast global shift to renewable energy sources will be all the more difficult to achieve.”
Note that the above quotes from the JPT article imply that a “transition” to “renewable energy sources” is still possible if accomplished very quickly. Many critics have concluded that the window for such a transition has long passed - that sufficient alternative energy sources like wind and solar require unrealistic amounts of natural resources to build and maintain. In any event, global warming and ecological overshoot are more of an existential threat. More on this in following topics.
Fresh Water and Aquifers
Food Supply and Agriculture
Global Warming and Pollution
NASA
Natural Resources Defense Council
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Other types of air pollution
The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS)
Top soil, Pesticides, and Herbicides
6th Mass Extinction and Invasive Species
Current extinction rates are estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than natural background extinction rates and are accelerating. Over the past 100–200 years, biodiversity loss has reached such alarming levels that some conservation biologists now believe human activities have triggered a mass extinction.
Wikipedia
How Many Species are we Losing?
World Wildlife
Mining and Minerals
Examples of industrial minerals are copper, nickel, iron ore, uranium, cobalt, lithium, gold, silver, lead, mercury, zinc, tin, limestone, clay, sand, gravel, silica, gypsum, potash, talc, gallium, germanium, graphite and rare earth elements such as Scandium, Yttrium, Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium, Promethium, Samarium, Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, and Lutetium.
Enviromental Impact of Mining
Inequality, Racism and Polarity
Frederick Douglass: "Where justice is denied, where poverty is enforced, where ignorance prevails, and where any one class is made to feel that society is in an organized conspiracy to oppress, rob, and degrade them, neither persons nor property will be safe."
Types of inequality
Social
Health
Education
Justice
Participation
Health and Education
While “school choice” sounds good in theory, the privatization of public school funds exacerbates educational inequity and increases the disparities it claims to mend. Data continues to reaffirm that school vouchers are riddled with fraud, show unimpressive results, defund public education, and amount to a handout to the wealthy. Supporters argue that vouchers expand equity and opportunity, but in fact, vouchers divert public money to the private, often religious, education of a handful of students. These funds instead should support the public schools that serve 90% of our nation’s students.
Private Schools
Federal programs, through the Department of Education, provide essential support for wide swaths of the population, such as veterans and low-income children. Conservative politicians frequently try to reduce or eliminate these programs. The link below illustrates an example (Musk and DOGE):
Attack on Public Education
Medicare and Public Health Under AttackPrivate Hospitals
Time to get an Appointment
Global Trade and Inflation
Recent media spin promotes the misleading idea that worker wages have caught up with inflation. This assertion is only based upon the last few years. The following charts shows that wages adjusted for inflation, going back to 2006, have not caught up with inflation.
Capitalism is an economic system that is inherently destined to create massive inequality and will eventually self-destruct.
Wikipedia: Wealth
The Shock Doctring
Globalization was promoted as being a great benefit for all nations that participated. However, critics of globalization raise concerns about its economic, environmental, social, and cultural impacts. These impacts include job losses in the home country, exploitation of workers in developing countries, more greenhouse gases and invasive species, loss of cultural identity, income inequality, global recessions, undermining of governments, and harm to indigenous people. Critics oppose the power of multinational corporations and the deregulation of financial markets and describe the changes in the global economy as "turbo-capitalism" and "casino capitalism.
Wikipedia: Criticism of GlobalizationInternational Monetary Fund on Growing Threats to Global Trade
Immigration and Pandemics
"The exponential growth of human population has led to increased urbanization which acts as an accelerant of epidemics, as was the case with COVID-19 in Wuhan. In addition, the continuously increasing pursuit for natural resources has led to the expansion of humans in wild habitats where they are more likely to come into contact with animals that act as reservoirs or vectors of previously unknown infectious agents"
National Library of Medicine
Overpopulation can significantly impact migration by driving people to leave their home regions due to limited resources like food, water, jobs, and land availability, leading to increased migration towards areas perceived to have better opportunities and less population density.
Standford's Library: Millennium Alliance for Humanity and the Biosphere (MAHB)
War and Nuclear Meltdown
“In 2024, humanity edged ever closer to catastrophe. Trends that have deeply concerned the Science and Security Board continued, and despite unmistakable signs of danger, national leaders and their societies have failed to do what is needed to change course. Consequently, we now move the Doomsday Clock from 90 seconds to 89 seconds to midnight—the closest it has ever been to catastrophe.”
Doomsday Clock
Nuclear War Risk
Nuclear Weapons Accidents
Nuclear Disarmament
Hacking and the Internet
Some not-so-fun facts about Cypercirme:
Cybercrime is projected to cause trillions of dollars of global economic damage annually, with estimates reaching $10.5 trillion by the end of 2025.
Statistics predict that cybercrime will cost the global economy more than 20 trillion U.S dollars by 2026, a 1.5 times increase compared to figures in 2022.
The average cost of a single cybercrime incident in the United States is approximately $27.37 million.
Cybercrime has grown to such an extent that it can be described as the world's third-largest economy, after the US and China, with cybercriminals making far more money than worldwide illegal drug trafficking, counterfeiting, and human trafficking combined.
The financial sector is particularly vulnerable, with cyberattacks potentially eroding confidence in the financial system, disrupting critical services, and causing systemic risks.
Wiki: Cybercrine
Potential problems with AI include algorithmic bias and discrimination, job displacement, privacy violations, security vulnerabilities, lack of transparency and accountability, and the potential for misuse in areas like surveillance and autonomous weapons.
AI, especially generative AI, requires substantial computational power, leading to high energy consumption during training and operation, with data centers playing a critical role. This energy demand is projected to grow significantly, potentially straining power grids and energy providers.
AI Risks
AI Accountablility
Common Good and Global Ethics
Time: We Have Put Individualism Ahead of the Common Good for Too Long
“Human identity is no longer defined by what one does, but by what one owns. But we’ve discovered that owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning. We’ve learned that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose.” Jimmy Carter
“The idea of “the common good” was once widely understood and accepted in America. After all, the U.S. Constitution was designed for “We the people” seeking to “promote the general welfare”—not for “me the selfish jerk seeking as much wealth and power as possible.”
― Robert B Reich, The Common Good
Wiki: Common Good
Maslow Hierarchy of Needs
To keep it simple, the possible future scenarios will only focus on the bottom two tiers, plus a few modern luxuries and conveniences.
The needs of most people involve the following five facets of daily life and will be represented in each scenario:
Do you want to minimize your contribution to Ecological Overshoot?
Bearing in mind that no individual action can change the overall trajectory of decline.
Vote
Regardless of how painful, keep being informed of world, national, and local news. And, support organizations and political candidates who:
- Understand ecological overshoot and energy depletion
- Are non-religious and pro-choice
- Promote equality in all its forms (justice, financial, etc)
- Passionately support democracy and the rule of law
- Empowers citizen participation by protecting rights (voting, free speech, etc)
- Strongly support the ideal of “The Common Good” and shared purpose
- Communication transparancy and responsive to citizen concerns
Shelter
Ecologically friendly housing starts with the recognition of human overpopulation, and the fact that most “sustainable housing” claims are simply greenwashing, as any building activity on virgin land is inherently ecologically destructive. People in need of housing should prioitize the reuse and rehab of existing housing stock.
Rehab of existing dwellings should emphasize:
- Small size - subdividing
- Reuse and recycling of existing construction materials
- Use locally sourced materials as much as possible
- Passive heating and cooling strategies
- Very basic electrical, plumbing, and waste handling
- Avoid reliance on modern technologies and materials
Food
Planet Earth cannot sustain a food supply for 8 billion humans, much less with a reasonably nutritious diet. Today’s industrial agricultural methods have led to soil erosion, nutrient depletion, and reduced soil fertility, impacting long-term land productivity. There is no “solution” for our predicament without a significant reduction of the human population. Practices like permaculture and vegetarianism have some benefits, but they only play a marginal role.
Phosphorus and potassium are mined from phosphate rock and potash, and these finite resource supplies are declining. Aquifers are being depleted for irrigation water, and pesticides, herbicides, and antibiotics are causing major ecological damage
About 75% of critical fertilizers for Industrial farming come from natural gas, both as a feed stock and as energy for processing the fertilizers. Natural gas is a decling finite resource.
The best advice for individuals is to support local organic farms, along with learning how to grow and store food and water supplies. Also, eat meat sparingly, or better yet try Veganism
Wikipedia Food SecurityTransportation
Ride a bicycle whenever practical. However, don’t risk your safety if you don’t live in a bicycle-friendly community. Encourage your local government to join the Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A) program, a U.S. Department of Transportation initiative, which provides grants to local communities to improve roadway safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries.
Use public transportation as much as practical. For most people, however, an automobile is a necessity. To minimize your ecological footprint with car ownership, simply don’t drive any more than necessary and keep your existing vehicle for as long as possible. If you must purchase a car, try to buy a small fuel-efficient used one. If your only option is buying a new car, don’t fall for the greenwashing of an Electric Vehicle (EV) that replicates the size, power, and conveniences of existing cars. The manufacture of all such EVs is an ecological insult.
Globally, some EVs might ease the transition to a powered-down future. Unfortunately, they are currently illegal in the US - but future expensive energy may change that status. Here is an example of a small Chinese EV that sells for around $6,000 (no US dealerships):
See my Recreation suggestion for additional transportation suggestions
Mini EVWork
Early humans were “working” nearly 3 million years ago, as were modern humans around 300,000 years ago. Since about 50,000 years ago until around 10,000 years ago, people’s daily work changed very little. We were hunter-gatherers using basic tools like knives, spears, axes, and cooking pots. Starting around 10,000 years ago, with the beginning of agriculture, the nature of work began slowly changing as some people became skilled in specific tasks unrelated to hunting and gathering. Around 3,000 years ago, a few privileged people’s workday became highly specialized in areas involving writing, philosophy, and science. However, until very recently, most people toiled in farm work or other manual labor.
Today’s “occupations” are a tiny aberration in human history that has only been enabled by the discovery and use of fossil fuels.
As these fuels become scarce, the nature of work will most likely gradually revert to earlier forms. In the foreseeable future, we can expect occupations to become more manual and more aligned with the basic human needs of food, shelter, clothing, safety, and health.
People entering the workforce today would be well advised to learn skills that are directly related to these basic needs and avoid “office job” careers dependent upon today's level of energy-dependent technical complexity. Organic farming, carpentry, plumbing, mechanics, garment making, and nursing are examples.
Wikipedia WorkRecreation
Recreation can take many forms but the focus here is on those types of recreational activities that have been largely commercialized in our industrial civilization
Our travel industry promotes “destination” vacations involving extensive travel by car, boat, and airplane with little regard for wasting fuel, creating pollution, and environmental damage.
Flying in an airplane is the most polluting thing we commonly do. Aviation is responsible for nearly 6% of human-caused global warming, and yet only about 3% of the global human population travels by plane.
Cruise ships are environmentally damaging due to their high carbon emissions, waste generation (including sewage and plastic), and the potential for noise pollution, impacting marine life and ecosystems.
Mega-arena events , like concerts or sporting events, negatively impact the environment through increased energy consumption, waste generation, and transportation emissions, as well as the construction of large infrastructure.
Movie production and services like TV, Netflix, YouTube, TikTok videos, AI, and even email can be environmentally damaging due to high energy consumption, carbon emissions, and resource depletion.
If you want to lessen your environmental footprint, the guiding principle is that all leisure travel, entertainment, and sports should be local and mostly of a non-commercialized nature.
Support your local Performing Arts Center, community center, and American Hiking Society . Consider volunteering with groups that clean and restore natural habitats. Never attend mega-arena events, like concerts, ball games, or car racing.
No air travel or cruise ship vacations - Take the “No Fly Pledge”
No automobile “Road Trips” beyond your local region or state. If possible and safe, enjoy your vacation on a “bicycle tour” in your home state. Explore your own state’s natural resources.
Wikipedia RecreationTiming
Modern civilizations across the globe (the only exceptions are subsistence economies ) are based on industrialized technology that is inherently unsustainable and will eventually collapse into a much more basic economy that’s devoid of most modern conveniences. World history is replete with examples of collapsed civilizations, and there is no reason to believe we won’t suffer the same fate. Early humans have been around for nearly 3 million years, and modern humans for nearly 300,000 years. For most of that time, we were hunter-gatherers. Our experiment with techo-industrialism is alien to our nature and the entire time of our existence.
The fundamental problem is ecological overshoot, which means that the resource carrying capacity of planet Earth can’t support 8 billion humans. This predicament is further exacerbated by the excessive consumption of natural resources by the wealthiest nations. The is no “solution” whereby some combination of technologies, efficiencies, conservation, vegetarianism, alternative energy, etc, can indefinitely preserve any semblance of modern lifestyles.
Our Modern Era exists only because of abundant natural resources. The modern world can't exist without cement, steel, plastics, and ammonia. And, they all depend upon depleting supplies of fossil fuels that can’t be replaced by any so-called alternative energies. Wind, solar, hydrogen, nuclear, etc, all depend upon both fossil fuels and depleting finite mineral resources. The promise of technological solutions is greenwashing at best and more likely delusional.
Denial is the normal reaction to the idea of ecological overshoot. The fundamental assertion of this website is that there is no “solution”; we have a “predicament” that begs for acceptance to make the best of the coming decline of the modern era.
Assuming this acceptance, a basic question is: What is the timeline under the most probable scenarios? Ignoring catastrophes (nuclear war, pandemics, volcanic eruption, etc), the three most likely scenarios are: some mitigation efforts, business as usual, and exacerbating actions.
Mitigation efforts are likely to be very timid but could help many people understand the dynamics of ecological overshoot. Understanding the decline process could alleviate fear as events unfold and help people enjoy some benefits of a less consumption-oriented world. However, any useful mitigation efforts would have to encourage serious restraints on family size, home size, purchases of everyday conveniences, travel, and a host of similar things. Perhaps a 10% probability at best.
The business-as-usual scenario probability is around 60%. In this case, we simply react to events as they unfold with little forethought or planning. We hype greenwashing.
The exacerbating scenario takes up the remaining 30%. In this case, we promote economic/population growth and make every effort to secure a greater energy supply, and we increase our reliance on complex technologies.
The analysis behind this website predicts that the business-as-usual scenario will result in an irreversible decline in living standards becoming obvious to everyone by 2050, and the next century will have less than half of today’s human population. The mitigation scenario might add a few years to the timeline, and the exacerbating scenario could shorten the timeline by a decade or more.
Societal Collapse
